Ambrose v Dion

I'm reading this piece in the Globe that trashes Rona Ambrose. Blatantly incorrect information held up as fact in front of the media and parliamentary committees; public embarrassment internationally; a "plan" that kicks into gear in 2025; and now a call for the auditor to look into every single Liberal environmental initiative. I suppose if you're not going to do anything, you might as well talk about how bad your predecessors were. A good offence really can be the best defence.

But in the discussion forum, there was a lot of talk about Stephane Dion, and his "lacklustre" performance as Environment Minister. I'm surprised this wasn't more of an issue in the leadership race, to be honest. When it came up in the Toronto debates I didn't think M. Dion handled it that well; worse, one day after his election as leader, he was taken to task by two CBC anchors and he also did poorly - I thought - explaining how he could run on a platform elevating environment to a third pillar when during his tenure as Minister Canada's greenhouse gas emissions increased. He spoke about his three pillar vision and what he wants to accomplish, but he didn't or couldn't reconcile that with the very pointed questions about his performance when he was ostensibly the leader on the file.

So, as a thank-you to M. Dion for holding a joint fundraising dinner with my friend Gerard Kennedy, I will provide - absolutely free - a three-point (english-language) response to this question, to be used liberally between now and E-day.

1) Firstly, I became Minister of the Environment in Paul Martin's minority government only in July 2004. So I had barely one year as Minister before we had to fight another election. It is very difficult to turn the big ship Canada in the best of circumstances, and environmental impact takes a long time to manifest itself. So, I am not surprised that there was no visible improvement, and even if there had been I could not have taken credit for it.

2) Also, Canada's economy performed very well over this period, and that growth was led by some of our dirtiest heavy industries. This is why "intensity-based" targets must be rejected, as they would allow for continuous increases in emissions and discourage the biggest polluters from making environmental investments. But this underscores the impact that uncontrolled growth has on our environment, and serves to remind us that our economy must be sustainable as well as productive.

3) Most importantly, the environment was not a top priority for the Martin government, and is an even lower priority for the Harper government. I ran on the three pillars vision because I believed the environment had to be made a central issue in government. The Liberal Party agreed with me. Soon we will ask Canadians if they are prepared to make the environment a central issue in the government of this country. I believe they will, and that the next government of this country will be a Liberal government with not only an environmental vision, but with a strong mandate to take action.

And we all know that working together, we can accomplish anything.

Dion gets off to a good start

Every reader will know that Dion wasn't my first choice - but he turned out to be the second choice of many, and that's the Liberal way (apparently). So, I was pleased to see that he wasted no time getting out there and kicking ass:

-Ratcheting up the pressure on the Afghanistan front, demanding a Marshall Plan style approach and critiquing Harper for (a) not demanding a quid pro quo for our extension and (b) using the extension as a political ply to embarrass the liberals during a leadership campaign when soldiers lives are more important. Zing!

-Telling Harper to get stuffed on same sex marriage, and having faith that in a free vote his caucus will also vote like charter Canadians (memo to Paul Szabo... you're a dinosaur).

-Laughing at accusations by Ezra Levant that he is not Canadian enough, and refusing to give up his dual citizenship.

He's also acted with class by giving Iggy the second speech in Question Period, and he's not setting any deadlines on throwing out the government. Keep it up, M. Dion.

Party time

7PM - Liberal party party - panorama room, 7th floor, Palais de Congres
8PM - Hyatt - GK Campaign celebration.
Later....? Let me know!

Ignatieff - Gracious Speech

If he had shown such aplomb during the race he might not have had to give the speech. But he kept his good British stiff upper lip in place while waiting for the results, and he renewed his call-and-answer "tous ensemble," which I hope he really believes and which I hope will be guiding us forward. It is very difficult to be so gracious in defeat, and Michael has shown great character in his performance.

Dion!

Wow. It wasn't so close. Bonne chance Stephane. - nous sommes aux votre mains.

Dion!?

From the comfort of my war room, I believed it would be Iggy. Then Bob supports no one (not a gentlemanly move, but a move motivated by the fact that he absolutely must stay in the party and remain prominent if he hopes to pay off his enormous debt, which is to his brother but which he is legally obligated to repay through donations, no more than $5400 per person, and so therefore cannot afford to be wrong).

But the floor likes Dion. I have my concerns, from an electoral perspective, but I have said before and will say again that winnability is crap, and that if we are not to be a party of power-hungry robots we have to pick based on what we believe in our hearts is right, and not what we believe in our minds will win pluralities in a majority of ridings.

I am obviously for renewal, since am for Gerard. Dion is the only other top candidate that is not powered by the old guard and/or old back-room. He also has a solid policy platform that I agree with (e.g. on the environment, and e.g.2 not on Iraq or torture) .

I think I could be satisfied with that. I might even put on a green scarf.

Rae loses: Convention all but over.

Well obviously Gerard's support was incredibly valuable - Dion has leapfrogged into first, and Bob "I learned my fiscal policy lessons in Ontario but forgot them for this leadership campaign and borrowed more than all the other teams put together but don't worry I'll re-learn my lesson if you elect me" Rae is off the ballot. I don't know why my disgust at that kind of hypocrisy has overtaken my disdain for a virtual foreigner who would deign to return to lead us, but it has.

Round 3:
Dion 37%
Iggy 34%
Rae 28%

As long as even a very slim majority of Bob's delegates go to Iggy, which I think they will, we're going to get the candidate that insiders and power-brokers told us we wanted 10 months ago. I hate being told what I want.

Mr. Ignatieff, I know that it was insiders who brought you to be keynote speaker at our last convention, and who got you your nice seat in Etobicoke, and told us to make you the leader, and now (or 3 hours from now, as the case may be) made you the leader. But when you are the leader, you need to bring some real change and renewal to this party, even if some of those who got you here must give up some of their power in the process. I don't trust you because you left this country before I was born, but you will now have the chance to earn my trust and the trust of all those one-time-Liberals who plugged their noses and put Stephen Harper in the PMO. Please, for all our sakes, don't let me down.

And on principle, or on the friends-close-and-enemies-closer theory, make sure there is a spot for Gerard Kennedy at your cabinet table and in all those ridings West of Kenora we so dearly need to win back.

Gerard to Dion

It's official. *sigh*.

I think he gave up too early.

2nd Round Results

Total votes: 4695
Ignatieff: 1481 (31.6%) +69 votes
Rae: 1132 (24.1%) +155 votes
Dion: 974 (20.8%) +118 votes
Kennedy: 884 (18.8%) +30 votes
Dryden: 219 (4.7%) -19 votes
Spoiled: 5

Dryden has freed his candidates and gone to Rae.

Rae posted the biggest gain, which is still completely inexplicable to me. The question of Iggy's growth potential remains, but he is not bleeding support as I had hoped. Dion widened the gap, which is what he needed to do. Unless Gerard can capture most of Dryden's supporters, he will be kingmaker as the media have told us, and not king (this time).

Kennedy's speech well-recevied by francophones

Kennedy énergique

Celui qui se classe actuellement troisième dans la course, Gerard Kennedy, a fait forte impression avec un discours dynamique et bien rythmé, qui a soulevé la foule à de nombreuses reprises.

Saturday monring roundup

I haven't been up this early on a Saturday since I was a kid. Of course by now everyone knows the results - I was busy drinking at Ken Dryden's soiree last night and not blogging... you have to have priorities. Nonetheless, here they are (DSM numbers in parentheses):

Michael Ignatieff: 1,412 votes, 29.3% (29.3%)
Bob Rae: 977 votes, 20.3% (20.1%)
Stephane Dion: 856 votes, 17.8% (16%)
Gerard Kennedy: 854 votes, 17.7% (17.5%)
Ken Dryden: 238 votes, 4.9% (5.1%)
Scott Brison: 192 votes, 4% (3.9%)
Joe Volpe: 156 votes, 3.2% (4.8%)
Martha Hall Findlay: 130 votes, 2.7% (1%)

Pre Round 2:
Volpe to Rae
MHF to Dion
Brison to Rae

-Iggy comes in below 30% (29.3%) and that's damaging. There is some suggestion that it was a strategic effort, that he held back or lent delegates so that he could create the impression of momentum on the enxt round. Time will tell. What is certain is that his poor showing won me $5. I mean 5,00$

-Dion people should be happy. Third place was always going to eb very tight, but putting it in stone even if by only two votes should be a big psychological boost. The reverse is true for GK; the result will detract from the momentum he gained from his speech in spite of the fact that he actually gained slightly over his DSM numbers.

-Candidates are throwing support behind Rae, which is great psychologically, but in both of these two recent cases most commentators have agreed that their backers (and back-rooms) have not really followed.

-Dryden had a great speech and it was much in the talk last night. I didn't blog on it because I didn't see it live, but the opinion is unanimous. Nonetheless, with Brison dropping, Round 2 will be Ken's last in this race. Where will he go, and who will he bring with him?

The round two question: what (if anything) happens to those Iggy delegates who got on teh 'presumed frontrunner's" campaign and now are free to have second thoughts? If he loses 2% to either GK or Dion, that man will be on the final ballot. If he hangs on but doesn't improve, it will more likley be the Iggy v Rae that the newspapers have assured us for so long is coming.

Gerard Kennedy "wins" the Floor

I want to apologize because I missed Dion's speech, which means I can't profile speeches from all the top four. So below I profile the top three - Ignatieff's wooden but acceptable performance, Rae's very disappointing performance, and Gerard Kennedy's winning speech.

You can watch the speeches and the Candidate's videos here.

Also, Volpe backed Rae. We'll see if it is indeed the kiss of death, although I don't know how we will discern between the speech and the support when push comes to shove.

Ignatieff's Convention Speech

Ignatieff's speech was slow and deliberate. On a scale of Bob to Gerard, he rates a "good".

...His presentation is quite frankly wooden. Especially with the Queen wave, the one she gives from the back of horse drawn carriages - you know the one I mean.

..His video was unbelievably long, which seems an odd choice since each candidate has a fixed amount of time. It seems a tacit admission that he would rather have his video play than talk to the delegates directly.

...He made some great attacks on Stephen Harper. It's an easy target, but he still did a good job. He spoke about winning seats in Alberta, but didn't tell us how he would do it; I prefer Gerard's reference to "west of Kenora."

...He had some good call-and-answer audience work, with his references to being "ensemble" and the idea that the world should look to Canada. Apart from that I was surprised that his supporters were not vocal, given the sheer numbers.

...He suggested that foreign policy is as important as what we do in Canada. I love foreign policy as much as the next guy, but in the great scheme of government, the foreign minister is only one of many. I think it figures too highly in the academic's mind.

...He got cut-off by the orchestra at the end, a la the Oscars. Maybe he should have cut a few minutes out of his video.

All in all he was not inspiring, but he did not say anything stupid and he did not come off as colossally arrogant, so I think he did what he had to do.

Bob Rae's Convention Speech

If Bob was not a seasoned politician and renowned speaker, I would have thought his speech was pretty good. But he is a seasoned politician and renowned speaker, and against that standard I think he bombed.

...He spent a lot of time talking about politicking. We already know this race isn't about ideas, but I didn't realize until now that the back room business and power brokering could actually be admitted to be the most important factor.

...He did mention that we will run on the strength of the team. My good friend MacDuff was talking about this earlier today; we agreed that the idea was a winner and I was surprised to hear it coming from Bob, but good on him.

...He came right out and said he thought he was the best. Well, he quoted someone else telling him he was the best, but same-same. Bob snatched the 'most arrogant' award from Iggy's hands before the latter even had a chance to accept it.

...He spoke about the importance of putting vision into action, but only spoke of vision and never action.

...He spoke about students going to school hungry for knowledge, not hungry for food. I'm sorry, but there's one candidate in this race that owns the hunger issue, and it's not Bob.

...He spoke about having learned the lessons of fiscal responsibility, which given his current situation made me laugh out loud.

..he referred to Quebec issues, qu'il "connait bien." Correct me if I'm wrong, but in French doesn't that connote the meaning of "well enough," and not "well"?

...he ended by quoting Laurier, which in my opinion is a just an amateurish way to end this kind of speech.

Conclusion: Bob gave a vague, feel good speech, which would have done him well if he were the front-runner. He's not, and now I'm thinking he will never be.

Gerard Kennedy's Convention Speech

I freely admit my bias, but I know speeches, and of the top three Gerard's was unquestionably the best.

...His French was just fine, and he moved in and out of it freely.

...He spoke about the quiet noises, a recurring theme of his campaign, and one which to me speaks directly to the compassionate government that I believe in, and that I think Canadians believe in.

...He told the story of the hungry family to whom he brought food, and in whom he recognized the integral nobility of the human spirit. Not a story of handing out food, but rather of how we all want the same things at heart: a decent job, food on the table, a happy family, and a future where our children can hope for even more.

...that the word on the lips of Quebeckers last election was not "nation" but "integrity." They too want the same things as we all do; we should not fight separatists on their terms, but rather should fight for a better Canada, and watch as the separatist spirit withers.

...He said he wasn't going to spot Harper 80 seats west of Kenora. Damn right!

..the crowd, whose support was more frequent and more vocal. It has often been said that Gerard's delegates are the most loyal and most committed, and that showed.

Gerard Kennedy won this round, and I think he will win another tomorrow. Actually, I think we'll all win another one tomorrow.

Kennedy Delegates Reach Out

I spent the last hour with several hundred Kennedy delegates cheering and waving placards here at the Palais - a flash mob in support of Gerard. I was once a professional shouter of sorts, and the fact that people could keep up with me in shouting for an hour is testimony to the energy and confidence of our delegation.

There was an amazing moment when Martha's delegation was riding down the escalators and chanting, and we all joined in to cheer for her. Her delegation enthusiastically joined us when they arrived in the lobby, and our "We want Martha!' quickly became "Martha! Kennedy! Martha! Kennedy!" That was just awesome, and I hope a predictor of things to come.

I know I can speak for pretty much all 5000 people here when I say that I have a lot of respect for Martha and i think her opinion and endorsement will carry a lot of weight, and I hope she believes (as I do) that Kennedy is the candidate who talks the talk and will walk the walk on making meaningful strides in increasing women's participation in the party, particularly at the highest levels.

It also serves as a reminder that Gerard is by far the best positioned among the front-runners to reach out to all liberals and act as a genuine unifying force as leader of our party and Prime Minister of Canada.

Breakfast at Kennedy's

Just came from Gerard's breakfast rally. There were so many people the hotel staff couldn't keep the coffee urns full.

Gerard gave a rousing speech, proclaiming that Canadians want a party and a leadership that actively seeks their input and support every day, not just every few years at election time. But even more impressive than the candidate was the crowd, a crowd full of people from every region and all walks of life who are positive about their ability to make this change happen. We live in a democracy, and true power comes from the people not the leadership. The energy in the room was palpable, and anyone who was there will know that this is a campaign of winners who, like Gerard himself, are ready to roll up heir sleeves and get things done. Working together there is nothing we cannot accomplish.