02 December 2006

Saturday monring roundup

I haven't been up this early on a Saturday since I was a kid. Of course by now everyone knows the results - I was busy drinking at Ken Dryden's soiree last night and not blogging... you have to have priorities. Nonetheless, here they are (DSM numbers in parentheses):

Michael Ignatieff: 1,412 votes, 29.3% (29.3%)
Bob Rae: 977 votes, 20.3% (20.1%)
Stephane Dion: 856 votes, 17.8% (16%)
Gerard Kennedy: 854 votes, 17.7% (17.5%)
Ken Dryden: 238 votes, 4.9% (5.1%)
Scott Brison: 192 votes, 4% (3.9%)
Joe Volpe: 156 votes, 3.2% (4.8%)
Martha Hall Findlay: 130 votes, 2.7% (1%)

Pre Round 2:
Volpe to Rae
MHF to Dion
Brison to Rae

-Iggy comes in below 30% (29.3%) and that's damaging. There is some suggestion that it was a strategic effort, that he held back or lent delegates so that he could create the impression of momentum on the enxt round. Time will tell. What is certain is that his poor showing won me $5. I mean 5,00$

-Dion people should be happy. Third place was always going to eb very tight, but putting it in stone even if by only two votes should be a big psychological boost. The reverse is true for GK; the result will detract from the momentum he gained from his speech in spite of the fact that he actually gained slightly over his DSM numbers.

-Candidates are throwing support behind Rae, which is great psychologically, but in both of these two recent cases most commentators have agreed that their backers (and back-rooms) have not really followed.

-Dryden had a great speech and it was much in the talk last night. I didn't blog on it because I didn't see it live, but the opinion is unanimous. Nonetheless, with Brison dropping, Round 2 will be Ken's last in this race. Where will he go, and who will he bring with him?

The round two question: what (if anything) happens to those Iggy delegates who got on teh 'presumed frontrunner's" campaign and now are free to have second thoughts? If he loses 2% to either GK or Dion, that man will be on the final ballot. If he hangs on but doesn't improve, it will more likley be the Iggy v Rae that the newspapers have assured us for so long is coming.


Anonymous Patrick Guay said...

Get me one of those snazy Kennedy tambourines Gav.

December 02, 2006  
Blogger Gavin Magrath said...


December 02, 2006  

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