31 December 2008

Free the Blogfather

"Hossein Derakhshan, nicknamed the “Blogfather” for his role in pioneering a blogging revolution in Iran, last updated his blog in October and Canadian media reports, quoting a friend, said he was detained on Nov. 1 during a visit to Iran.

"Mr. Derakhshan, 33, was a journalist in Tehran before moving to Toronto in 2000. He made his name by publishing instructions on how to use blogging software to publish blogs in Farsi, sparking an explosion of blogging in the Iranian language.

"He visited Israel in 2006 and said at the time that this might mean he would not be able to go back to Iran "for a long time"

"Mr. Derakhshan's blog, “Editor: Myself“ (http://www.hoder.com/weblog/), which he launched in 2002, has not been updated since October."

http://www.hoder.com/weblog/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hossein_Derakhshan

http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=41221014021&h=ErmQV&u=BftOG



08 December 2008

I await the letter

Barely two days ago I proposed that one of the only viable solutions to our current stalemate the Liberal caucus arrive at a leadership consensus and install that person immediately.

Today, Domenic LeBlanc has shown excellent judgement, both in reading my blog and taking my advice. Bob's current efforts, while admirable, are damaging. It is sad when a good man has to admit that he has missed his chance, but this is that time. Bob Rae will never be Leader of the Liberal Party, nor PM of Canada, and unless he wants to take his former roomate and present Party with him, he should bow out gracefully and serve out his time in Cabinet before retiring to the senate or a plum ambassadorial position.

Also, of course, this REALLY puts the pressure on Steven Harper to garner actual agreement on his policies. With Dion at the helm, he still may have taken his chances on standing stubborn and hoping for an election call (rather than the appointment of the coalition). Now either result of a non-confidence vote will be very dangerous for him. I still doubt he can change his spots.

06 December 2008

The next six weeks

Our government isn't working - literally has not been working since the summer. But we still pay them just the same, so how are we going to get them back to work? We will see one of three scenarios play out over the next six weeks:

The Road to Damascus: The government has not been working because Steven Harper did not want it to work, preferring to divide and conquer than to make friends of his own. So, he can simply decide to make it work by deciding to genuinely work with other members of parliament outside his own caucus to develop a budget that will be passed in January.

Yes! We Can! (play nicely with others) Odds: 15:1

The Cat with Nine Deaths: That's Chantal Hebert's phrase for Dion. Canadians don't want him as PM - heck, most Liberals didn't even want him as party leader, but he just won't go away. His web-cammed message to the nation was the perfect example of the reasons why. Surprisingly, he's not the problem: his replacement is the problem, or his lack of replacement. The PM has to enjoy the support of parliament. Let the Liberals (and NDP, even) find the person in whom they can place their confidence as PM, and not on an interim basis. One of the leaders must be picked, the others get out of the way. This cannot wait until May. Canada will be prepared to accept that person, who they didn't vote for, because it's someone they didn't vote against.

Yes! We Can! (put our house in order before asking to govern) Odds: 9:1

Status Quo: there are several other scenarios, each of which are even less likely than the above. The most likely outcome is that Steve does not learn how to play well with others and neither of the leadership contenders is willing to step down, and we are in the same place on 26 January as we are today. Some Canadians will plug their nose and go with the lesser of two evils, but most of us will be rightly offended by this level of incompetence. As a practical matter, voter disgust translates to better results for conservatives and better results for incumbents. As a philosophical matter, I can't believe this is the best these clowns can do.

Yes! We Can! (do way better) Odds: 3:2

02 December 2008

What's right about this

Stéphane Dion's Liberals and Jack Layton's NDP, with the support of Gilles Duceppe's Bloc, are proposing to vote out Mr. Harper's Conservatives and form the new government. Is it a coup? Is it democracy? What will the GG say?

The fact accords with the constitutional reality - Prime Minister Harper has lost the confidence of the house. He will almost certainly lose the next confidence motion. A closer examination of how that happened will help us understand the best response.


First, we have the explanation of the coalition: he has failed to respond to the financial crisis. This is true, with Pollyannaish estimates of the economy's performance, promised substantial savings from cuts to they-know-not-what, and Mr. Flaherty's unwise and premature musings on a hasty sale of assets.

Second, the opposition's not-at-all veiled anger at the withdrawal of funding for political parties that was slipped in with the economic update. Mr. Harper thought the opposition would 'blink' and it would be a Merry Christmas for him. And why not? They had been blinking for a year or more.

Which is really how we got here: Mr. Harper was able to whip the required Liberal votes by threatening them with an election and so govern without a majority but also without negotiating or compromising with the other elected members of the house. Frankly, that's undemocratic and it was bound to end. As the inevitable end approached, we had his intentional obstructions at the Committee level, a bit of a holiday, and then the election.

Our government has not done much work in the last six months, and that is Mr. Harper's fault. He intentionally broke this House. It was his excuse for the election. He was hoping the election would 'fix' it by giving him a majority, but that didn't work. He returns to the House he broke with no idea of how to put it back together again.

So, the reason Mr. Harper does not enjoy the support of the House is because he does not deserve it:

1) We are not governed by a majoritarianism, much liess some kind of minoritarianism: the government must negotiate in good faith with the other members of the House, who are all duly elected democratic representatives of their constituents. Mr Harper fails to play well with others, as is his duty.

2) He laid out additional confidence motions to ensure the passage of legislation that the House would not otherwise support, and to weaken his opposition further. These are both partisan aims and show that he will place partisan advantage above the proper functioning of government, the well-being of Canadians, and the respect in which those Canadians hold our democracy and it's officials.

3) He will obstruct the work of government to prolong its life and then force an election, not on any substantive issue but simply because it was an opportunity to seek a majority. Again, this places partisan interests above the interests of the nation and its citizens.

4) He has been given the chance to learn from these mistakes and has failed to do so, returning to the House he broke with the same strategies that caused its collapse.

His failure to respond to the economic crisis is, frankly, window dressing, and the removal of funding is simply the example of how he failed to learn from his mistakes and adapt to a minority house (he's had almost two years!). He will almost certainly compound these by asking for the House to be prorogued (a stay in which he would hope to out spend and out PM the opposition) or for an election. Again, either response shows he is placing the continued power of his government over the proper functioning of our government, the Parliament of Canada.

Whatever the GG does, it's about time these guys got to work. And that means a PM who can command the support of the house on a confidence motion. Right now, there is only one of those on the table, and that is the best of the alternatives. Long live Dion, and short may he reign.