Frontrunners Invincible?
Paul Wells gives the boring answer that the front-runner will probably win. He could have saved us the trouble and provided us a link to Cerberus' page, since he's been saying that since Iggy was only the 'presumed frontrunner' back in June.
Wells then quotes PHD candidate Peter Loewen, who as far as I can tell gets at least one thing absolutely wrong, which is shocking considering the obvious relevance.
According to our soon-to-be-doctor, a front rnuner with >30% support has never lost at a federal delegated convention, and the last time this happened at a provincial convention was Ontario 1958. However, look back at this post from the deep dark history of six weeks ago, and you will see that the most recent Ontario convention featured a front-runner with 30% support who was overtaken on the final ballot by the guy in 4th place. I repeat, for posterity, that I both hope and believe this will happen again, and Gerard Kennedy will cruise to 4th ballot victory, then lead the Liberal party to a series of majorities.
Wells then quotes PHD candidate Peter Loewen, who as far as I can tell gets at least one thing absolutely wrong, which is shocking considering the obvious relevance.
According to our soon-to-be-doctor, a front rnuner with >30% support has never lost at a federal delegated convention, and the last time this happened at a provincial convention was Ontario 1958. However, look back at this post from the deep dark history of six weeks ago, and you will see that the most recent Ontario convention featured a front-runner with 30% support who was overtaken on the final ballot by the guy in 4th place. I repeat, for posterity, that I both hope and believe this will happen again, and Gerard Kennedy will cruise to 4th ballot victory, then lead the Liberal party to a series of majorities.
posted by Gavin Magrath at 11/29/2006 02:15:00 PM
5 Comments:
It's Paul Wells not Andrew Coyne who suggests this..... ;)
Bailey - thanks. I need coffee.
Decoin - No, if you look to the third paragraph he specifically mentions provincial races and the ontario convention of 1958. So, techinically, he's wrong,. What's more important is that he is wrong in principle. He basicalyl takes the position that it's impossible, when one of the candidates actually running in this race and actualyl trying to do what he says is impossible watched it happen to his very own front-running campaign at the most recent Ontario convention. That seems like a pretty gross oversight and a pretty strong rebuttal all rolled into one.
G
Wells says "no candidate with Iggy's first-ballot support has ever lost a brokered Canadian convention." Nothing about provincial or Liberal. Even if there were, it would be a quibbling point because Kennedy's experience proves that front-runners don't always win. As did the 1976 Tory convention, when Joe Clark was 3rd on the first ballot but went on to win. It's a horse race alright.
No candidate with Iggy's first ballot support has ever polarized people as much as Himself, either, (I'm guessing, of course) so it will be interesting to see if any of his first ballot support deserts him on the 2nd.
Penny - to be fair, frontrunners often create an "anyone-but" campaign.
It would probably be accurate, however, to say that no fruntrnuner with >30% support has ever so consistently made embarassing public gaffes during a campaign. Judgement and political awareness are important, IMHO.
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