Stephane Dion to Support Gerard Kennedy?
The Hamilton Spectator has suggested that 'shifting alliances' have led Dion away from Rae and towards Gerard Kennedy. As a practical matter, since the final DSM number place Kennedy in third, materially ahead of Dion, unless Dion shows some big movement in the second round he will be looking for a new home. As a tactical matter, the joint delegates would not be enough to win, but the combined Dion/Kennedy camp would have incredible momentum and be almost impossible to beat.
Dion has been in attack mode recently, and he has been targeting Iggy and Rae. Nothing for Gerard. All three of them are ahead of him - why would he not target only the frontrunner, or all three? Why only two? Maybe there are just not enough attacks to go around, but I think Kennedy has learned from his Ontario experience, and has been careful to keep the level of debate high and not sink to personal attacks. He may be the only leading candidate whose door is still open to Dion (or, rather, whose Door has not been shut by Mr. Dion).
Also, I think the Dion and Kennedy will make an amazing leadership team. Dion long has had the job of advancing the Federalist cause in Quebec as the QC lieutenant to a PM that was not popular in Quebec. Frankly I think Gerard will become much more popular there as the people get to know him, but for the time being if he is to have much success there he will need the support of a Quebecker with credentials. That pairing would be tough to beat. There is strength in unity: that's a principle that applies to the Liberal party as well as the nation, and its a principle that all the candidates give lip-service to but only Gerard Kennedy is putting into practice.
posted by Gavin Magrath at 10/25/2006 09:46:00 AM
18 Comments:
I think Kennedy is very honest man, and would do great with help of Dion.
Would someone please tell me who that vile- mouthed blogger is at "The Canadian Republic" who tells lies about Kennedy. Surely he or she cannot be a Liberal!!
I wouldn't underestimate Dion turning the tables on Kennedy. A more likely and successful fit would be Kennedy being the English Canada lieutenant for Dion. It would be a great outcome.
Dion is overwhelmingly the second choice of more delegates than any other cndidate. I honestly haven't heard anyone say that Gerrard is their second choice. Also given that the convention is in Montreal and the questionable nature of many of Mr. Kennedy's delegates, I don't believe he will be ahead of Dion even on the first ballot. We're talking about Kennedy going to Dion here certainly not the other way around. The Kennedy campaign stalled and lost steam months ago. Dion just keeps gaining momentum.
Isn't saying that Kennedy is "staying above the fray" just a nice way of saying, "he hasn't said anything of meaning?"
And if you believe that Dion is going to support a guy with zero support in Quebec, who struggles to speak French at anything more than a rudimentary level, you're delusional.
S.B.,
Dion is overwhelmingly the second choice of more delegates than any other cndidate.
I wonder where you're getting your stats from. Since the Iggy-Israel-Quana flap, as well as the QC thing, alot of ppl are looking elsewhere for second picks, and whatever the stats were 4 weeks ago, they've changed!
A ta place, je ne vendrais pas la peau de l'ours avant de l'avoir chassé.
SB,
As a Kennedy delegate, I am not questionable, you are.
Dion doesn't have momentum right now, his recent temper tantrums are earning him lots of negative press.
Anon,
Dion only earned 10% in Ontario. That is a poor showing like Kennedy's in Quebec. We have to dominate in Ontario, not Quebec, to win the next election and Dion cannot do it with those numbers.
Unless Dion changes his tactics, Kennedy is on the rise.
This is just posturing by the Dion and Kennedy camps. The truth is everyone is talking to everyone and candidates themselves don't have that much influence on where their delegates go. Dion knows that most of his delegates are in Quebec. These people overwhelmingly support Quebec being recognized as a nation and acknowledging the fiscal imbalance exists. This means his supporters will go largely to Iggy. Gerard's supporters out west want renewal, not an NDP Premier from Ontario or Quebec lieutenant from the Chretien years. This points to Iggy as well.
if kennedy does go to dion then he will likely establish his federalist credentials, and earn a huge amount of dions quebec organization for a subsequent leadership run.
or. vice-versa.
Apparently, most of you have not been involved in leadership races before.
1) A candidate’s ideological leaning has a small bearing on where he/she will go
2) A candidate usually listens to the backroom in deciding where to go. Why? Because the interests of the backroom are usually aligned with the interests of a candidates personal ambition.
Kennedy will be looking at when he gets the next chance to be the next leading contender in the next leadership race. He will be setup with a nice cabinet position (ie. Minister of Finance) should he choose to drop out
Dion will be looking to stay on as an influential member in the Liberal party (ie. holding on to power)
Which ever team in the background does the most lobbying will get the candidate.
That Globe and Mail article that explained the backroom picture was dead on.
Westmount,
You raise a good point re: how does a candidate "deliver" their delegates.
As for Kennedy's French, Dion's delegates will not have a problem communicating with Kennedy. His French is better than it is made out to be by other camps.
The fact is WE WILL NOT dominate in Quebec in the next election, even if a fabulous Quebecois leader were to suddenly appear. The numbers are not possible. Of course, we would like to rebuild and do well, but it is not possible for us to dominate. Ontario is a completely different matter. We have to dominate in that province to win.
Anon at 11:52 that is supporting Rae or Iggy,
I don't think so.
I think it is a great alliance.
Rae and Ignatieff are not really Liberals. They do not know the party, but are being supported by the old guard (I guess the old guard doesn't have much respect for the party either).
The problem for Kennedy is that Dion would not be able to deliver his Quebec delegates to Kennedy even if he tried.
What this means is that Kennedy should support Dion, and wait for his time in the sun. Kennedy would catapult himself past Ignatieff and Rae as the top English Canadian in the party, and can then be set up quite nicely as the heir apparent.
If Rae or Ignatieff win, then Kennedy's future is over. The next leader after Rae or Ignatieff will undoubtedly be French. And, at this point, it looks most likely if that person is French, it's gonna be Dion.
If Rae or Ignatieff win, then Kennedy's future is over.
I strongly disagree. Kennedy has a strong chance after the fact. It may take until 2010 or 2015 or even 2020 but his future is definitely not over.
Rae and Ignatieff are not really Liberals
And Tony Blair wasn’t Labour, what is your point?
The fact that three of the four front runners are relatively new to the party (Iggy,Rae and Kennedy) sends a clear message. The party is feeling really bruised up right now after 13 years of Chretien/Martin, and is willing to look to the outside for help. (Right or Wrong).
And some of you need to get your head out of your asses.
We will not dominate Ontario anymore unless the right splits up again. We may be able to maintain a majority, but not sweep the province (The 90's spoiled us in this)
The keys back to a majority lie in Quebec and the West. (Combined with an implosion of Harpies Conservatives)
S.b. - people lie about their second choices. It's like Archie and Moose all voting Ethel for second place in the beauty contest. If you haven't heard anyone (in particular iggy defectors who don't liek the taste of feet) considering moving to GK you're not talking to teh right people.
Anon 11:21 - no it's not the same at all. If you can't tell the difference between not going negative and not ssaying anythign at all, you must live a very negative life. Good luck with it.
Anon 11:41 - most GK supporters I know are not second round Iggy supporters. Hopefully we never prove that pudding by tasting it.
Anon 11:52 - exactly. Both men have a great deal to be gained in this race and the next one through mutual support. Far more than if they supported Rae or Iggy, IMHO.
Anon 12:57 - great points, but I think that the road to victory does not lie in Quebec unless we see the collapse ofthe Bloc, which is not on my radar anyway.
Of course the 90's spoiled us in terms of 'sweeping' Ontario, but it's a seat-rich province that we can win *without* the collapse of any other party. It has more seats than the entire West put together, where we can't do well without a collapse. Harper's support is very soft in Ontario - I am 100% confident that he is in charge of this minority ONLY because of the portest vote, and nothing else. The Liberal party can easily win a minority and perhaps even a majority simply by winning back those disillusioned ontario voters.
The only way to do that is with Real. Liberal. Change.
G
Annie, I dare you to find a single "lie" on my entire blog. Kennedy finished in sixth place in Quebec. Don't shoot the messenger.
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